We’ve talked in the last five newsletters in this Inflection Point Series about ways to leverage in the market, in a customer, in the product, in the and in a technology.

I want to end cap this series with the theme of what makes inflection points even possible in the first place. That is, a 1) thoughtful strategy and a 2) commitment to a long tail of consistency on the right activities.

I say this because some startup founders tend to approach startups like the following story…

I read a story once about a person who just turned 18 years old and a family member encouraged them to buy a lottery ticket because they were now legally able to do so. Not thinking anything about it, that single lottery ticket led to $48 million jackpot!

For whatever reason, we are drawn to such dreamy scenarios - let me get the jackpot without putting in any of the work. Phrases such as “get rich quick” or “just go viral” are cop outs for the actual work that is required to be successful.

We want the output, the payoff, without the input.

Sometimes I remind myself of the tweet of former Twitter Founder and CEO, Jack Dorsey, the day that Twitter IPO’d…

✅ As it relates to inflection points, are inflection points random?

For the most part, no. The startup intentionally designs them.

Are inflection points hard to achieve?

Not as hard as you would think.

What is the prerequisite?

In this newsletter, I want to show the importance of how both of these play out to create the likelihood of an inflection point happening, rather than waiting on a prayer for something spectacular to happen without these two components.

I want to demonstrate this in light of two examples in our portfolio: Midwest Games and Octane Coffee, although this commitment to a long tail of consistency in the right activities is not unique to these two and are present in all 17 of our portfolio companies, they are top of mind examples that I have.

Many of us in Wisconsin learned about Ben Kvalo in a viral post on May 12th, 2023.

In the first newsletter in this Inflection Point series, I wrote that Ben catalyzed a market inflection point. In essence, Ben observed that the market was “of the same mind, but not of the same voice.” Ben decidedly became the voice of the market. Intentionally.

Now, that was the first time that I had become aware of Ben, as it likely the case with tens of thousands of other people.

For a second when I saw that post on May 12th, I thought that it was a “winning the lottery”-type situation, as if Ben had came onto the scene and essentially made his debut with this LinkedIn post.

But what I want to highlight is that is his success is not accidental.

Ben had a commitment to a long tail of consistency long before this moment.

Let me walk back in time a bit to understand this.

For example, take a look at his content performance in the last 365 days from January 2nd, 2024 (graph supplied by Ben):

Notice something important: Looking at the line graph preceding May 12th, after May 12th, and after the second spike, Ben had a commitment to a long tail of consistency on his LinkedIn posts and activity.

He had identified the leverage that in his case, LinkedIn, had on his brand and voice and was consistently doubling down.

He had a commitment to a long tail of consistency to LinkedIn posting before this viral spike on May 12th, 2023.

In fact, what Ben told me is that “What you don’t see is a spike right before the beginning of 2023 that the graph doesn’t show because it’s only for 365 days.”

To further this point, I caught up with Ben over coffee in Green Bay last week and among other things, talked about his LinkedIn activity as a way of learning. I shared with him how it seems like he observed that there was a missing market voice to bring together the people who were of the same mind. When he stepped up to become that market voice on May 12th, he basically became the voice for underrepresented video games in the Midwest.

Ben nodded in head in agreement to my analysis. He knew exactly what he was doing, and I was just reflecting his thought process back to him.

Then he said something that caught my attention. “Yes, but before I was that, I was the ‘Netflix Games guy.’”

“The Netflix Games guy”?

Wait a second.

Long before the May 12th moment, before Midwest Games was a thing, Ben revealed that he still possessed the two things that we discussed above. He had defined the frame on how he defined his brand when he was at Netflix (the thoughtful strategy) as “The Netflix Games guy” and a 2) commitment to a long tail of consistency to speaking to a narrative around that.

My point is that Ben was not banking on a first-time-playing the lottery to win scenario.

Rather, it’s the thoughtful strategy and the commitment to a long tail consistency to post on LinkedIn is a valuable way that led him to the threshold of the Market Inflection point that we saw on May 12th.

Another example is Octane Coffee, another one of our portfolio companies.

As I wrote about in the Consensus Inflection Point, a consensus inflection point happens when a shareable asset such as a link, article, or video goes viral over a medium. In so doing, the market moves from small pockets of people being aware of the company to many people being aware of it. The market moves to consensus very quickly.

Octane Coffee experienced consensus inflection point when a news article went completely viral for them in October 2023. Here is the article that went viral. Here is a BizTimes article that covers the distribution.

After this happened, the “franchise inquiries” form on Octane Coffee’s website skyrocketed with inquiries from around the world. See graph below, provided by Adrian, which marks the franchise inquiries per day from June 2023-Dec 31st 2023.

What I want to call out here is what made this consensus inflection point possible.

Octane Coffee had a thoughtful strategy - designing a remarkable product and experience.

But then in months after they launched in Summer 2023, they had a commitment to a long tail of consistency in delivering an exceptional, first-of-its-kind coffee experience, and in listening to customer feedback and tweaking the product experience.

I recall several times where I would have a phone call with Adrian Deasy the CEO that Summer 2023 after launch. It was memorable to me because it was hot out in summer and as I would talk to him, I’d stand out on the rooftop of my office building and look at the Green Bay skyline. As consistent as that scene was, Adrian was also consistent, telling me about how the last week of sales was, navigating technology challenges, and always questioning me and questioning himself about how to make the experience better. I still remember when he said, “We need to introduce iced coffee.” I was a bit surprised because they had recently opened and now they were going to re-configure the robot in a unique way to allow Octane to served iced coffee. But he was relentlessly committed.

He and I would talk about marketing and how to do consumer activation in those following months after launch.

But to both of us, one thing was apparent - the customers of Octane Coffee were overwhelming thrilled.

I still remember standing with in the drive-thru of Octane Coffee with Adrian shortly after they launched in Summer 2023. I recall that one customer drove-thru, and he was fluent with the experience such that it seemed like he was a regular. Adrian waved at the guy and the customer rolled down his window and shouted with his drink in his hand, “Thanks, you guys are awesome!!”

✅ With a commitment to consistency about building a world class product experience, listening to customer feedback, and tweaking the product experience, Octane Coffee gave itself the likelihood of an inflection point happening. ✅

When the consensus inflection point did happen in late October 2023, I was not surprised.

But it would not have been possible without a thoughtful strategy and a commitment to a long tail of consistency.

This begs the question - consistency across WHAT?

✅ Consistency across the main pockets of leverage of the business. ✅

For a market inflection point, a commitment of a long tail of consistency in becoming the market voice that the market unites around.

For a customer inflection point, a commitment of a long tail of consistency to gain customers who possesses a disproportionate amount of influence on the market that you are in.

For a consensus inflection point, a commitment of a long tail of consistency product execution, and tweaking to improve, In a consensus inflection point, the market unites around the shareable asset and medium. 

For a product inflection point, a commitment of a long tail of consistency in developing a product that is very easy to adopt.

For a technology inflection point, a commitment of a long tail of consistency in developing the breakthrough technology paired with the network to distribute it.

✅ Rather than being inconsistent and playing a strategy of metaphorically winning the lottery on the first time buying a ticket, a commitment to a long tail of consistency is the only way to increase the likelihood to ignite an inflection point. ✅